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Agent-Based Simulation for Risk Management
( MSc Thesis )

Emergency plans describe the rescue and situation management procedures accorded by the emergency entities responsible for crisis response. Such plans are determined by extensive analysis and understanding of the real cenario, and require an evaluation process. Evaluation is achieved through the testing of concepts and procedures determined by the plan’s authors in a simulation environment. Given the difficulty in orchestrating a physical drill, the costs involved and the lack of realism attached to the predictive nature of such a drill, a virtual simulation is seen as the best approach for such a task. A methodology for the plan specification and evaluation through agent-based modelling is proposed. A concrete implementation of the concepts of both plan specification methodology and simulation engine are also discussed. The emergency plan integrates geographic and demographic data of the affected area, and also the relationships, actions and characteristics of the key entities in the designed crisis response. The proposed methodology - and corresponding platform - contemplates visualisation and interaction in real time as well as comprehensive selection and output of data for further analysis.

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